Saturday, October 23, 2010

Climate Change - Human Activities the Cause, Mea Culpa! But Consider 1816, the Year Without Summer!

The entire world seems sold on Global Warming and Climate Change - caused by human activities emitting carbon dioxide - and therefore the need to "green" planet Earth. Nobel prizes were awarded to the UN's IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) and Al Gore several years ago; at the recent Copenhagen conference (follow-on to the Kyoto Protocol Climate Change Conference of 1997), President Obama led leaders of 192 nations in agreement with its principles, promising heavy financial reparations to 3rd world nations.

Scientists have calculated that emissions of carbon dioxide by human activities, including fossil fuel burning, cement production, gas flaring, industrial operations and breathing, amount to perhaps 30 billion tons per year. They also estimate that volcanic eruptions, a candidate consideration for cause, can normally emit between about 145 to 255 million tons of CO2 into the atmosphere per year, on average, including both subaerial and submarine fissures and vents. This seems to indicate that human activities may release perhaps 100 times the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by volcanoes - thus, there seems to be a reasonable basis for the universal concern: human activities are impacting the climate of planet Earth - and in a negative manner - causing global warming.

However, Mother Nature must indeed have a strong sense of humor - on the heels of the international guilt-admitting furor at Copenhagen by world leaders and President Obama in support of Global Warming - along comes the coldest winter in recent decades. And now, with Obama's EPA poised to levy severe pollutant restrictions and harsh financial penalties on American industry, there comes a volcanic eruption in Iceland that has devastated the air-transport industry, closing down almost all flights over Europe for a week, with attendant cost consequences which may bankrupt major airlines(absent bail-outs by governments).

The reality of major natural catastrophes: this recent eruption of Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull volcano (or Krakatau, or earthquakes, or tsunamis, or hurricanes, or cyclical coolings and warmings of ocean or atmosphere), should warn decision-makers that planet Earth is huge and complex, and that feel-good, simplistic ideologies dictating industrial restrictions and financial reparations (the EPA or the Cap and Trade bill) can cause great national economic damage while pursuing a noble cause ("greening" planet Earth) - but may provide little benefit.

Within the first 72 hours of the eruption of Eyjafjallajokull volcano, Iceland's Institute of Earth Sciences reported the average discharge rate of ash at 750 tons per second or 65 million tons per day - equivalent to the normal average annual discharge - and in just the first few days. The plumes of ash reached over seven miles into the skies; about 100,000 flights were cancelled, ten million passengers stranded; bankruptcy of major airlines distinct possibilities. There is also a caveat appendage to this Icelandic eruption - a similar eruption in Iceland in 1821 lasted for 13 months!

In light of the Iceland volcano eruption, a look at causes for global warming and climate change - other than man-kind activities - seems warranted. The summer of 1816 is considered to be one of the coldest on record, studied by many weather scientists. The year is known as the "Year Without a Summer"; it is also known as the "Poverty Year", due to widespread destruction of crops. Severe climate abnormalities during the summer destroyed crops in Northern Europe, Northeastern United States and Eastern Canada, and average global temperatures decreased sufficiently to cause significant agricultural failures around the world.

Of great interest to environmentalists were the unusual events prior to the summer of 1816: the previous year, the eruption of the 13,000-foot Mount Tambora volcano in Indonesia had hurled an estimated 37 to 100 cubic miles of fine dust, cinders and ashes more than 15 miles into the atmosphere. The estimates of deaths were about 10,000, the blast being heard 970 miles away. Meteorologists believe the eruption caused the greatest amount of volcanic dust to be ejected into the atmosphere in history. In addition, Earth's atmosphere had already been polluted by previous eruptions of other volcanoes, Mayon and Luzon volcanoes in the Philipines in 1814, and the Soufriere volcano on St. Vincent Island in the Caribbean in 1812. The dust from all these eruptions combined and lingered in the stratosphere - shielding Earth from the sun's rays - thus enabling heat to escape from Earth - resulting in reducing Earth's temperature.

The most likely cause of the severe climate change seems therefore, to be the volcanic influences. Proponents note the numerous large volcanic eruptions preceding 1816: Soufri?re and St. Vincent in 1812: Mayon and Luzon in the Phillippines in 1814; Tambora in Indonesia in 1815. The Tambora eruption has been estimated to be the most violent in historical times, the explosion believed to have blown 150 to 180 cubic kilometres of material into the atmosphere. (For a comparison, the infamous 1883 eruption of Krakatau ejected only 20 cubic kilometres of material into the air - and yet it affected sunsets the world over for several years after).

The seemingly most reasonable scientific "proximate" cause of drastic climate change during 1816 is therefore the volcanic theory of climatic influence: greatly increased volcanic activity causing immense amounts of ash and dust to be blown and trapped high in the atmosphere, causing increased reflection of solar radiation (instead of absorption at the Earth's surface), resulting in globally decreased temperatures on Earth.

Puny man and his activities seem trivial and inconsequential relative to the whimsicality and power of Mother Nature, plus the complexity and immensity of planet Earth, and the primary influence of our Sun.

Aaron Kolom qualifies as a "rocket scientist" with over 50 years aerospace engineering: Stress Analyst to Chief of Structural Sciences on numerous military aircraft, to Corp. Director Structures and Materials, Asst. Chief Engineer Space Shuttle Program through first three flights (awarded NASA Public Service Medal), Rockwell International Corp.; Program Manager Concorde SST, VP Engineering TRE Corp.; Aerospace Consultant.

Aaron L. Kolom - from Brainwashed* and Miracles**
* The Perceived Mind-Set of the Secular Elite re Darwin Evolutionism!
** To Believe in Them - Have Faith - In Science and Logic!

Visit website at to learn a bit about Science vs the Bible, from conflict to confirmation.

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